Delhi Policy Group

The recent India Pakistan talks from July 14- 16, 2001 in Agra, popularly known as the Agra Summit, has produced a range of unexpected results. At the outset, the government of India agreed to talk with the military government of Pakistan. Soon after the Kargil operations of 1999 and the military take over by President Musharraf in Pakistan, India had demanded that cross border terrorism should be put to an end before any bilateral discussions. Nevertheless with the background of President Musharraf as the architect of the Kargil operations who was also not favourably disposed towards the Lahore Declaration India extended an invitation. As a good-will gesture India unilaterally announced the following CBMs:

Pakistani fishermen straying by mistake in the Indian waters will not be arrested. Those arrested will be released soon.
In the economic sector, tariff would be reduced on 50 products this is despite the fact that Pakistan has not given MFN status to India.
Twenty scholarships would be extended to Pakistani students for studies in technical institutions in Indian.

Pakistan ,on the other hand, had released Vikas Singh who had been arrested in Pakistan while on a world peace mission on his bicycle. Shortly before the summit General Pervez Musharaff, the Chief Executive of Pakistan, assumed the title of the President of the country. The move was perceived by the political watchers as an effort by the General to give a civilian face to his government. His coming to India as the President of the country and not as a military ruler was seen to portray an image of a leader who had acceptance of the people and not only the defence forces. President Musharraf's arrival in India was a much publicised event. President's visit to Mahatma Gandhi's Samadhi, the first ever by any Pakistani heads of the state, was seen as a symbolic gesture by the press and media as a sincere man giving reverence to the Father of the Indian nation. The visit to his ancestral home in Delhi was another event highlighted by the media as a military man in civilian clothes, who was at ease in meeting the common man. The media savvy General was forthright in airing his views and opinions to the Press.

The Summit brought forth the differing focus and perceptions of the two countries. India intended to discuss the entire gamut of relations ranging from CBMs to economic and political issues, nuclear risk reduction and other areas which were identified by the two countries in the Lahore Declaration in addition to Kashmir. However, Pakistan insisted that `Kashmir was the core issue to the Indo- Pak dispute and until it is resolved, talks on other issues such as economic cooperation and CBMs were pointless'. Pakistan had already started showing its interest on Kashmir as the main topic for discussion much before the talks.

Some days prior to summit President Musharraf said in an interview to the Press in Islamabad that " we have been talking about trade, commercial ties, economic relations and cultural relations, of improving communications between the two countries. That is putting the cart before the horse and ignoring Kashmir. This cannot be done." He also showed his keenness to meet the Hurriyat leaders in India. Pakistan had spelt out the focus and direction on which the talks should concentrate. He proposed a four step mechanism to approach Kashmir dispute.
Initiate dialogue.
Recognise Kashmir as the main issue of dispute between the two countries.
Negation of options unacceptable to India and Pakistan and examine possible solutions.
Tripartite discussion on Kashmir between India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir.

Showing its readiness to discuss Kashmir, India pointed out that the issue of cross border terrorism needed to be discussed in dealing with Kashmir. This was not acceptable to Pakistan. President Musharraf refused to accept that Pakistan was aiding and abetting the cross border terrorism. In his meeting with the editors of the Press in Agra, President Musharraf said that Pakistan was not encouraging violence in Kashmir and that it was `an indigenous freedom struggle'. He tried to give recognition to the Hurriyat representatives as the representatives of the Kashmiris by meeting them at a tea party organised by the High Commissioner of Pakistan in New Delhi. The reaction of some of the militant oufits operating from Pakistan was tough. Hizbul Mujahideen said that the break down of the talk would lead to escalation of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. It blamed India for the failure of the talks. Jamaat- e- Islami appreciated the stand taken by President Musharraf at the summit. Harkat-e-Jehad-e Islami asked Musharraf to wage war against India to resolve Kashmir dispute.

The Agra summit ended with the two sides not being able to agree on a Joint statement or declaration. Five rounds of talks between the two leaders could not break the ice. However, the summit reconfirmed the differing approaches to deal with issues which affect their relations. On the positive side, Musharraf and Vajpayee would have understood each other's point of view. They would have a clearer idea of each other's power and willingness to make the necessary compromises, if a solution to the Kashmir issue is to be found. They would have realised each other's political compulsions. Gen. Musahrraf, whose experience of dealing with India was confined to military operations, has seen at close quarters the Indian political leadership and its approach to India- Pakistan relationship. He would have found the Indian public response to his visit a pleasant experience.

The Indian side has come face to face with a confident- perhaps overconfident- military mind grappling with Pakistan's serious challenges of political freedom, economic growth and sectarian strife. They have sized up Musharraf's ability and willingness to reign in the fundamentalist militant organisations operating from inside Pakistan. His argument that armed violence in Jammu and Kashmir is entirely indigenous in nature has shown his disregard for the realities of the situation and for international opinion. It was expected that President Musharraf would bring his military asset of clear thinking to bear on the deeper need to move India Pakistan relationship to a stable threshold. The shared interests of both nations and of the region were expected to motivate his visit to India. It is unfortunate that he could succeed in projecting himself no better than his military predecessors. Kargil confirmed that General Musharraf had misunderstood the strategic outcome of a military action. Agra reinforces the belief that President Musharraf could not grasp the strategic opportunity to place Pakistan on a new course. The two countries have , however, taken the position that they will continue with the dialogue process. There in lies the hope for the future of India- Pakistan relationship. In the meanwhile, violence in Jammu and Kashmir has escalated. Pakistan has given up maintaining restraint on the Line of Control. It has recommenced the firing to which Indian troops have responded.