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Nuclear building blocks
V.R. Raghavan is an Advisor at the Delhi Policy Group, New Delhi.
The creation of a Nuclear Command Authority
(NCA) brings into effect a longstanding requirement. The Government
has done well to announce its coming into being. It formalises
what was essentially a set of unstructured arrangements among
senior member of the politico-military-scientific establishment.
An increasing number of doubts were being expressed about
the commitment of India's leadership to effective nuclear
weapons management. The announcement sets at rest some doubts
over nuclear issues, reiterates the promises made by the Government
internationally and incorporates doctrinal issues listed in
the draft nuclear doctrine. It also falls short of answering
nagging questions that continue to persist.
Nuclear weapons capability accrues to a state
from a number of factors. They form the building blocks without
which a reliable nuclear deterrent cannot become operative.
Unless all of them are in place, the nuclear deterrent can
neither be credible nor effective. If a nuclear deterrent
is seen as a wall, which keeps threats out and adversarial
intents under control, that edifice cannot be left incomplete
for want of some building blocks. These building blocks are
in the realm of technology, force structures, decision processes
and doctrinal convictions. National interests do not permit
complete and uninhibited transparency on all aspects of nuclear
deterrent management. Nevertheless, existing arrangements
must provide high levels of confidence to all segments of
national security apparatus as much as to other states which
have a stake in global and regional strategic stability. In
the technology arena, India has a longstanding nuclear technology
programme which is well linked to strategic needs. The Ministries
involved are either directly or very closely managed at the
Prime Minister's level. The technology-military linkages have
begun to improve after the nuclear tests of 1998 and the induction
of missile delivery systems into defence services. It can
be safely said that in nuclear warhead and delivery system
development fields, confidence levels are high. The NCA is
to function at two thresholds, i.e., of political and executive
councils. The former led by the Prime Minister rightly retains
the full authority to decide on nuclear strikes in response
to a nuclear attack. The Executive Council chaired by the
National Security Adviser will provide the decision-making
inputs to the Prime Minister and would execute the directives
of the Political Council. Presumably, the Executive Council
will comprise the Chiefs of defence services, the JIC Chairman,
the Convener of the National Security Advisory Board, the
Cabinet Secretary, heads of intelligence agencies, and Secretaries
of Ministries represented in the CCS. There has been considerable
criticism of the heavy load of work on the NSA, who is also
the Principal Secretary to the PM. The new responsibility
will not make that burden any lesser. The above does not in
any way impact on the decision-making process in the CCS.
The functioning of the existing decision-making process either
during Kargil, Kandahar or post 13 December 2001 deployment
of troops for war had not inspired widespread confidence. The meshing in of the nuclear component of national security with military operations will also need a meaningful improvement.
Nuclear weapons place severe limits on the possessor's ability
to wage war with a nuclear adversary. This implication was apparently
lost sight of during the war deployment of 2002. Assessments
on the Government's ability to cope with a nuclear decision
after a nuclear or biological or chemical strike has taken place
on India or Indian assets would, therefore, remain uncertain
at best. There would continue to be doubts on the nuclear force
structure which the NCA envisages. There are no indications
on what shape this would have or on its interfaces with the
three defence forces. A Strategic Forces Command is to be established
under a separate Commander-in-Chief. The defence services have
already worked the tri-service Command in the Andaman and Nicobar.
Where would the Strategic Forces Command fit in? Will it be
under the Prime Minister or the NSA or the Chiefs of Staff Committee?
Will the SF Command have its own forces or will its strategic
regiments and squadrons remain under respective service headquarters
as they are now? Will the SF Command build, train and sustain
its own corpus of leadership and human resources? In other words,
will the SF Command be a special entity, as it ought to be,
or will it need to hang on the apron strings of the three services?
These issues are unlikely to be resolved
until a Chief of Defence Staff is appointed and given the
authority over the service chiefs to make the SF Command truly
operative. The NCA has left this unexplained. The far from
effective precedents of the National Security Council, its
Security Advisory Board and the handling of major security
crises during the last four years are examples of the ad hoc
functioning of the national security apparatus. It is to be
hoped that the critical building blocks of the nuclear deterrent
are put in place more speedily and effectively. In the interim,
the NCA is hopefully the sign of a new sense of purpose on
what the Government calls a credible deterrent. |