Asian Security Challenges The DPG started a project in January 2007 to examine the emerging Asian strategic scenarios. This is with particular reference to the strategic dynamic between USA and Japan with the ‘Rising Powers’-China and India, and the manner in which these relationships will jointly affect Asia’s position in the world order. This effort is supported by the John D and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The Asian Neighbourhood China has been termed the ‘rising power’ and its growth and power projection capabilities are being watched closely by all states, including the United States. China’s military capabilities are already on a sharply rising trajectory, which is a cause of concern in China’s neighborhood and also for the US. Recent statements from the U.S., particularly by the former Defense Secretary, Mr. Rumsfeld, have questioned Chinese intentions in pursuing the rapid military growth. The U.S. DoD’s Quadrennial Review has also referred to this concern. China’s policies coupled with its past record of conflict management and strong rhetoric have all combined to enhance anxieties in the region east of the Malacca Straits. China’s presence in Myanmar and its influence with the military junta there add to the concerns. States extending from Japan through Australia, Singapore, Indonesia to India are all examining the consequences of a rising China. On its part, China has pushed the idea of its being on the route of a ‘peaceful rise’ to great power capability. In fact, the dichotomy between China’s actions and assertions of ‘peaceful rise’ adds to the complexity of the Asian security dynamic. Sino–Japanese relations have taken a turn for the worse in recent years. Beijing’s strong responses on Japan’s record in WW-II and on its alleged lack of contrition for its actions are a matter of considerable concern to Tokyo. Beijing’s opposition to Japan’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council is evidence of the animosity that drives Chinese policies. Further, Chinese claims on the islands in the South China Seas and muscular naval and missile policies have only made the situation much more intricate than it is. Consequently, Japanese polices have shown a shift from a predominantly pacifist orientation to one that reflects a desire to play a more ‘normal’ strategic role in the region. India has in recent years developed a new relationship with the People’s Republic of China premised on confidence building measures and joint trade mechanisms. A recent bilateral Defence Cooperation to work together on issues of anti-piracy, search and rescue and related areas, is one such example. Notwithstanding this, Sino-Indian relations are not free from mutual suspicions and anxieties with a longstanding boundary dispute that is not near resolution despite decades of negotiations. Significantly, India has a strong antipathy to China’s assistance to Pakistan in military and nuclear weapons technology. The situation in Tibet and the presence of the Dalai Lama in India also add to the complexity of the relationship. China’s increasing economic and military presence in Myanmar and support to its junta is viewed with anxiety in India. The Indo-U.S. nuclear deal and proven Indian naval and military capability is seen by the states in the region as a countervailing power. This perspective about India has expedited its entry into ASEAN, ARF and Observer status, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Indian foreign policy is also emphasizing a ‘look east’ approach. More than anything else, the shadow of Sino-U.S. relations looms heavily on India’s relations with China. One can go so far as to say that Sino-Indian relations cannot be independent of China’s relations with US. The ongoing competition and rivalry between China and India has the potential to develop into an adversarial relationship. The United States remains and will continue to be the essential strategic factor in Asia. Its global military and economic reach with its technology assets makes it a critically needed element for the stability of the strategic dynamic. US strategic goals and security thrusts will therefore be major influences on the Asian scene. Project Objectives These trends serve as a background in the examination of the strategic goals of the mentioned states in a twenty-year time period. Thus, not only will the strategic vision of these powers over a two decades period be identified, but the potential areas of conflict and contention such as competing strategic visions would also be examined. A series of papers written by experts in these geographical areas would conduct this exercise. This will create a new corpus of thinking and provide original insights into the evolving security scenario through a combined perspective in Asia. Seminar DPG organized a seminar on the subject of Asian Security Dynamic. Scholars from the US, Japan, China and India contributed to this seminar which was held on 22 – 23 November 2007. Papers were presented on the following themes: US – India – China: Balancing Two Bilaterals by V.R. Raghavan, Advisor – Delhi Policy Group Security Dimensions of Power Relations in Asia, and the Possible Shift in Power Structure by Zhu Feng, Director - International Security Programme, Peking University, Beijing (China) Utilities and Limitations of Regional Security Frameworks in Asia by Takeshi Yuzawa, Research Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs, Tokyo, (Japan) Japan's Emerging Nationalism and its New Asia Policy by Takako Hirose, Professor - Faculty of Law, Senshu University, Tokyo (Japan) China's Rising Role in Asia and New Approach to Asian Security by Zhang Guihong, Professor - International Relations, Institute of International Studies of Fudan University, Shanghai (China) China , India and Japan: Economic and Political Forces Driving a New Asia by Rollie Lal, Assistant Professor, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School, Leuven (Belgium) An Indian Perspective on the Strategic Dynamic between China, Japan and the US by Swaran Singh, Associate Professor - Disarmament Studies, School of International Studies - Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi (India) The seminar was well-attended by invitees drawn from the policy-making establishment, strategic analysts, academia, military officers and the media. The proceedings will be published shortly. STAFF Project Director: Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. R. Raghavan Project Coordinator: Mr. Pradeep Rao Project Manager and Researcher: Dr. Amritha Venkatraman