Political Space in J&K

V.R. Raghavan is an Advisor at the Delhi Policy Group, New Delhi.

What is required are time and circumstances which would allow the political opposition in Jammu and Kashmir to make an important transition.

THE U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell's visit to India and Pakistan has led to more developments than meet the eye at first sight. He has also thrown up straws in the wind which indicate the directions of future U.S. attitudes on the Jammu and Kashmir issue. His visit was built on the need to ensure that Indian and Pakistani leaders stay the course regarding the promises they made to keep peace and not go to war. There were enough insights from Mr. Powell on how the U.S. would respond in future to heightened tensions between the two states. He has also done some skilful work in creating new linkages for Pakistan on Jammu and Kashmir. This puts the onus on New Delhi to speed up its policy plans for the State in the coming months.

Mr. Powell has squarely placed the coming elections as the central condition to be met if a dialogue is to begin between Islamabad and New Delhi. His observation that such a dialogue can only commence after the Assembly election is clearly intended to make the electoral process the essential milestone to be crossed by both India and Pakistan. Mr. Powell's statement to journalists travelling with him that efforts to resolve the conflict between the two countries were on a "plateau" is meaningful. It should be interpreted as reflecting a U.S. belief, that both India and Pakistan would be expected to make the special effort required. It would be imprudent therefore for either to view itself as being backed by the U.S.

The linkage between the successful completion of the Kashmir elections and the commencement of an India-Pakistan dialogue places a special responsibility on Pervez Musharraf. He must ensure that the jehadis do not sabotage the elections. If the militant groups initiate, or support, or claim responsibility for terrorist acts in the State, Gen. Musharraf would find his demand for a dialogue discredited. This also makes redundant the claim by the Pakistani President that elections in Jammu and Kashmir are being imposed by New Delhi on an unwilling populace. The meaning of the carefully crafted `Powellism' that infiltration - whether marginally reduced or otherwise - is continuing from Pakistan, makes the relationship with the coming elections even more compelling. New Delhi would no doubt be pleased at this linkage having been established. Any celebration on this slight tilting of scales in its favour would, however, be premature.

India has been cleverly linked to another set of conditionalities by the Powell visit. That India should work on fair and free elections - a phrase taken from the oft-repeated Indian lexicon - and allow independent observers to be present during the exercise is meant to serve two purposes. It places a value judgment on the extent of fairness and transparency of the electoral process anticipated. It also makes stronger the claims of candidates and parties in the State, for a pre-election dispensation that will ensure such conditions. There is a groundswell of doubt and anxiety in the State on free and fair elections. It is based on doubts about the ability or willingness of the National Conference Government to provide political space to individuals and groups who wish to contest against the ruling party. Those willing to stand up and be counted in the election fray have a persuasive argument. It is based on their having renounced violence after years of armed struggle. It is based on their not having had the time and opportunity to work the political waters for a very long time. It is reinforced by the alleged use by the NC of money, muscle and other means to keep them politically marginalised. The need for political space for a fair electoral opportunity is therefore likely to be a catch phrase in the coming months.

What is required are time and circumstances which would allow the political opposition in Jammu and Kashmir to make an important transition. It is a challenging transition from being a marginalised entity to a meaningful political alternative. That is what the State's populace desires and is the crux of the "fair and free" electoral process. This is a greater requirement than swamping the area with security forces to keep order, and protect voters and seekers of votes. This widespread desire translates into demands for Governor's Rule, for elimination of money and muscle power, and for guarantees of safety from security forces' excesses.

Some may argue that such demands are no more than a cover for seeking conditions that will obtain assured electoral victory for the Opposition. This belief fails to take into account the odds stacked against those who have chosen ballots over bullets. A fair opportunity to contest, and to win or lose credibly, is the minimum that should be expected from New Delhi. Creating the necessary political space in the State will be the essential precondition for redressing the alienation of the population. It is useful to remember that closing up the political space had led to the problem in the first place. When political space was fenced off it had opened up the space for a military struggle.

An important insight into the future U.S. policy on India and Pakistan is provided by the Powell visit. Going by his public statements in Islamabad, the Secretary of State did not mince words commenting on the need for Pakistan to do more on terrorism. Mr. Powell, however, also made it clear in private conversations that Gen. Musharraf seemed to have gone a very long distance in the war against terrorism whether in or outside India. He is reported have said that Gen. Musharraf was most positive and forceful in his commitment to end all infiltration. Mr. Powell also stated that the U.S. is in for the long haul in the region including Afghanistan. This clearly lays out the U.S. need for Pakistan and its leader. There are therefore limits to the pressure Gen. Musharraf can be brought under, by India's military mobilisation or ostracism. The building up of a crisis of the kind witnessed in May-June this year is not going to be countenanced with equanimity by the U.S. or other powers. Certainly, the use or misuse of a crisis with nuclear undertones will no longer obtain gains for either India or Pakistan.

Mr. Powell's visit has placed a special responsibility on Pakistan for keeping the militants and terrorists out of the electoral exercise in Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi is also under obligation to make the elections a viable medium for allowing the people to make their voice heard through free elections. The two Governments have, however, placed their military forces on war alert, whose defining rationale is the election in Jammu and Kashmir. The elections offer a post-September 11 opportunity of a momentous kind, after those of Lahore and Agra had been aborted. It remains to be seen how Islamabad and New Delhi will seize the new moment and opportunity for peace.

(Published in The Hindu, 2 August, 2002)