Observations by a visitor to Afghanistan and Pakistan

A meeting was held in Delhi Policy Group on 12th December 2002. The following issues were discussed.

Indo-Pak Relations
The view of the Pakistani intelligence with regard to the last crisis between India and Pakistan in May-June 2002 was that the build up was an exercise in coercive diplomacy on India's part that might have resulted in action along the LoC but was unlikely to lead to a general war. The Pakistanis felt the risks to India were too great and benefits to uncertain and that the activity along the LoC could be contained as both countries have had much practice doing so. Regarding two bombing incidents in August, it has been admitted by India that there was bombing across the LoC. Some concern was expressed about the air dimension of the stand off. It was emphasised that there is need for communication between the two sides to promote understanding and minimise the risk of miscalculations. With regard to Kashmir, both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move and are therefore in a deadlock. However, the risk of inadvertent escalation has reduced now that the armed forces have retreated.

Security Situation in Afghanistan
a. Overall Security Situation
The situation in Afghanistan at the moment is quite stable though the risk of an organised Mujahiden style campaign is acknowledged by all. There have been a number of small attacks around the countryside but there is no evidence of an organised campaign as yet. The long term prospects of turning Afghanistan into a modern nations state are rather dim. From the coalition perspective, the major issue is denying a permanent base for terrorism.

b. Afghan National Army
The plan is to organise 70,000 personnel in four corps. The Kabul corps of 17,000 personnel will be ready by June 2004. It would take longer for the other corps to be functional. The Kabul corps is area of concern due to the dynamics within the Central Government and its relation with the Northern Alliance members.

c. Coalition Forces in Afghanistan
There is a strong sense of Afghan situation being overshadowed by developments in Iraq. The Americans are trying to sell the concept of Joint Regional Teams (JRT's) to act as centres for coordination of development activities around the country. Other countries have been invited to join JRT's in certain areas and carry on functions from there. This is part of the American exit strategy. It will however imply a long term engagement for any country which takes it on.